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Impact of the CNB's interventions on the economz and comparison with other countries
Pjontek, Matej ; Hlaváček, Michal (advisor) ; Břízová, Pavla (referee)
This bachelor thesis analyzes influence of foreign exchange intervention of CNB on economy and compare it with influences of foreign exchange intervention of SNB and BOI on their economies. At first, we compare foreign exchange interventions and development of economies (banking sector, foreign trade,...) of Czech Republic, Switzerland and Israel. A hypothesis of efficiency of foreign exchange interventions of CNB, SNB and BOI is tested on specific empirical data. The bachelor thesis describes VAR model for given countries with basic macroeconomic variables (GDP growth, money supply, inflation, interest rate, nominal effective exchange rate and balance of current account of balance of payments). The results of model show on relative efficiency of foreign exchange interventions i.e. SNB mitigated influence of appreciation of CHF, CNB supported GDP growth and BOI increased foreign exchange reserves and supported GDP growth.
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Monetary policy at a time of low interest rates and threat of deflation
Kochergin, Aleksei ; Gevorgyan, Kristine (advisor) ; Šíma, Ondřej (referee)
The aim of the bachelor thesis is to analyze the Czech economy during the period of foreign exchange interventions, and several months after them in the situation of impending deflation. The topic is chosen to be the most up-to-date statement by the Czech National Bank council on the termination of the exchange rate commitment, which will undoubtedly define the domestic economy for a certain period of time. The thesis deals with aspects that have forced the Czech national bank to intervene in the foreign exchange market, it examines the state of the economy during the implementation period of the intervention, and then after the end of the exchange rate commitment. The work is divided into three main parts. The first part of this work explains the essence of monetary policy and its application by the central bank. The second part explains the economic nature of deflation and different views on this issue. The third part focuses on the analysis of the economic situation in the Czech Republic and the policy of the central bank. The result of this analysis will be the assessment of the success of selected strategy on the example of macroeconomic indicators and the evaluation of its adequacy due to the findings.
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Monetary policy of the Czech National Bank
Kotačka, David ; Rajl, Jiří (advisor) ; Cibulka, Jakub (referee)
This bachelor thesis is divided into two major parts. The first part is focused on the general theory of monetary policy which includes tools, targets and transmission machanisms. The aim of this part is to summarize information about process of monetary policy and to provide information for better understanding of the practical part. This part is focused on foreign exchange interventions used by Czech National Bank who was making an effort to accomplish the goals determined by law. The practical part is divided into two minor parts. The first of them is focused on analysis of economic indicators before, during and after foreign exchange interventions. The second part is focused on the development of EUR to CZK exchange rate which was deviated from real exchange rate.
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The most significant phases of the monetary policy of the Czech National Bank
Krahulcová, Iveta ; Koderová, Jitka (advisor) ; Revenda, Zbyněk (referee)
The diploma thesis deals with the analysis of the most significant phases of the monetary policy of the Czech National Bank, including the analysis and evaluation of its effectiveness from its origin to the present. The thesis is divided into three individual parts. Each part corresponds to a specific transmission mechanism applied by the Czech National Bank while implementing the monetary policy. Each chapter includes the assessment of the effectiveness of individual approaches and the analysis of the impact of the monetary policy as well as the decision of the Czech National Bank on the Czech economy. The very first chapter is focused on the application of the monetary transmission mechanism in conditions of the fixed exchange rate during which an increasing internal as well as external disequilibrium led to the monetary crisis. The second chapter is dedicated to the transition to the inflation targeting, expert discussion concerning its implementation and the evaluation of the achieved results. The last chapter presents the use of the CNB's additional instrument of the monetary policy in the form of the exchange rate including the reasons that led to this step. The closing part of this chapter focuses on the evaluation of the effectiveness of this policy.
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Effect of CNB's Monetary Intervention on Czech Exports to Germany
Krejčí, Tadeáš ; Šopov, Boril (advisor) ; Svačina, David (referee)
The primary interest of the thesis consists in impact of the Czech National Bank's monetary intervention on the volumes of Czech exports to Germany. To determine the significance of the potential casual effect, a Vector Autoregressive (VAR) model is constructed based on economic introspection and previous findings of other authors, to be subsequently estimated using the lucid method of least squares. Based on this procedure, we find evidence supporting the positive causal effect at hand. The results also confirm the presence of a structural break into periods before and after the initiation of controlled float regime. Furthermore, indications of casual effects are encountered in cases of other macroeconomic variables, such as German exports, supporting the reasoning in earlier works relating to this topic. JEL Classification E50, E51, E58, C51, C53 Keywords ForEx intervention, exports determination factors, foreign reserves, monetary policy Author's e-mail teddy.krejci@gmail.com Supervisor's e-mail boril.sopov@gmail.com
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Impact of the CNB's interventions on the economz and comparison with other countries
Pjontek, Matej ; Hlaváček, Michal (advisor) ; Břízová, Pavla (referee)
This bachelor thesis analyzes influence of foreign exchange intervention of CNB on economy and compare it with influences of foreign exchange intervention of SNB and BOI on their economies. At first, we compare foreign exchange interventions and development of economies (banking sector, foreign trade,...) of Czech Republic, Switzerland and Israel. A hypothesis of efficiency of foreign exchange interventions of CNB, SNB and BOI is tested on specific empirical data. The bachelor thesis describes VAR model for given countries with basic macroeconomic variables (GDP growth, money supply, inflation, interest rate, nominal effective exchange rate and balance of current account of balance of payments). The results of model show on relative efficiency of foreign exchange interventions i.e. SNB mitigated influence of appreciation of CHF, CNB supported GDP growth and BOI increased foreign exchange reserves and supported GDP growth.
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Central Bank Interventions and Their Influences on Exchange rates: The Case of TURKEY
Ucar, Ferit ; Vacek, Pavel (advisor) ; Benáček, Vladimír (referee)
This study attempts to analyze the efficiency of intervention policy in Turkey during the period between 4.1.2005 and 31.12.2012 with a sub period which is between 4.1.2007 and 31.12.2010. For our study purpose, therefore we investigated how interventions with pre-announced auctions as a whole influence the exchange rates. Further, we analyze whether there is an asymmetric effect among the buying and selling transactions with respect to their impact on the exchange rates. In the study, the E-GARCH model is employed to find the asymmetric effect. The final object of this study is whether buying auctions which are conducted to serve for only purpose of increasing international reserves influence the exchange rates. We evaluate the efficiency of transactions in the same direction of central bank statements. In conclusion, the findings did not amount to any significant impact of total transaction on exchange rates. The study findings also suggest that there is asymmetric effect among the selling and buying transactions. The amounts of selling transaction have a negative impact on both level and volatility while buying auctions did not have any significant effect on them. As a new research result, we found that buying auctions served well with respect to their contributions to reserves while they do not...
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The Czech Republic's Debt Financing: Causes and Risks of the Current Situation on the Bond Markets
Švadleňák, Michal ; Pavelek, Petr (advisor) ; Pekárek, Štěpán (referee)
This thesis is focused on the comparison of methods of financing budget deficits and national debt management in the Czech Republic with other OECD countries in the context of the current situation on the global financial market. The first part describes the methods of financing budget deficits in the Czech Republic which are compared with selected OECD countries. The second part is aimed at the impact of foreign exchange interventions of the Czech National Bank on the domestic bond market and it is compared with negative interest rates policy. The last part analyses the impact of the Public Sector Purchase Programme on the Czech Republic's bond market. The thesis implies that besides other factors, foreign exchange intervention of the Czech National Bank have an impact on the current situation on the bond market. While the impact of the programme PSPP has not yet proved.
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Attempt to analyze the impact of CNBs foreign exchange interventions on the Czech economy
Kos, Oldřich ; Babin, Jan (advisor) ; Čermáková, Klára (referee)
This bachelor thesis - Attempt to analyze the impact of CNBs foreign exchange interventions on the Czech economy - analyze the impact of CNBs foreign exchange intervention executed between November 2013 and December 2015. I used econometric models based on the ordinary least squares method and data of Český statistický úřad, Česká národní banka and Ministerstvo práce a sociálních věcí. The results of these models proved, that foreign exchange interventions had positive impact on GDP a unemployemt. On the other side, failed to achieve 2% inflation target.
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Terms of trade: impact on the czech international trade and economic growth in 2005 - 2015
Dulovec, Adam ; Zamrazilová, Eva (advisor) ; Šimíček, Petr (referee)
The thesis is focused on the changes in the terms of trade in Czech international trade in the term of from 2005 to 2015, as the period after the Czech Republic joined the European Union. The terms of trade are an important indicator of the benefits and loses of international trade. The main aim is to analyze the changes of terms of trade, the causes of their changes, and the impact on the real economy. The direction of the overall terms of trade index was highly unsettled, and did not actually generated additional gains in the economy not over the reporting period. The overall terms of trades were most influenced by the price development of two groups of the Standard International Trade Classification, Crude materials and lubricants, and machinery and transport equipment. The prices of Crude materials and lubricants are determined mainly by changes in the oil prices. These were very volatile in the reporting period, the especially the collapse of the prices in both 2009 and 2014-2015, had a significant impact on the import prices of the Czech economy. The thesis also analyzes the impact of exchange rate on the international trade prices, in the period since November 2013, i.e. after the Czech National Bank has committed to maintain the rate of Czech koruna against the Euro above the level of 27 CZK/EUR, which helped to protect the economy from deflations and enhance the economic growth. The effect of the weak crown, that favored the Czech exporters, however a faded over time.
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